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Modern agriculture rests on one of humanity's greatest industrial achievements. The Haber-Bosch process transformed humanity's ability to feed itself, and today nearly half of the world's food production depends on synthetic nitrogen fertiliser. Yet the system behind this success is increasingly exposed to energy market volatility, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risk. The question is whether fertiliser production can become more resilient in a changing world.
Recent years have made this vulnerability clear. Europe, in particular, has seen how quickly domestic production can falter when energy markets tighten. In many developing regions, fertiliser is not just expensive, it is simply unavailable. When nitrogen supply breaks, food systems follow.
A fossil-dependent system
This is not a marginal or temporary issue. Fertiliser markets are tightly coupled to global energy systems. The cost of ammonia production is dominated by natural gas, meaning that agriculture inherits the volatility of fossil fuel markets. At the same time, nitrogen losses from fertiliser to fork contribute to unnecessary emissions and pollution.
The assumption underlying this model is that fertiliser must be produced in large, centralised plants and distributed globally. That assumption is now being challenged.
Producing nitrogen from air and electricity
A new class of technologies enables nitrogen fertiliser to be produced directly from air and electricity. The concept is based on Birkeland-Eyde’s pioneering work on plasma technology. By using plasma, an electrically energised gas, it is possible to fix nitrogen without the need for hydrogen derived from fossil fuels. Crucially, this process can operate at smaller scales and be deployed close to where fertiliser is needed.
The implications are significant. If fertiliser production can be decentralised, it becomes less dependent on global supply chains and more resilient to energy shocks. Regions and continents that have become import-dependent can regain part of their food security.
A shift towards decentralisation
This shift mirrors broader changes in the energy system. Just as electricity generation is moving from large, centralised plants to distributed renewable sources, chemical production can follow a similar trajectory. Fertiliser, as one of the largest volume chemicals in the world, is a natural place for this transition to begin.
Scepticism is warranted. New technologies must prove that they can compete on cost, scale and reliability. Today, conventional ammonia production remains more energy efficient in purely thermodynamic terms. But this comparison overlooks a critical factor: the energy system itself is changing. As renewable electricity becomes abundant and, at times, curtailed, the value of flexible, distributed processes increases.
Resilience may matter more than scale
The question is no longer whether alternative fertiliser pathways are technically possible, but which system can deliver in time, and at which cost. Climate targets, energy transitions and geopolitical fragmentation are all pushing in the same direction: towards distributed production and electrification.
History offers a useful parallel. In the early 20th century, Norway pioneered industrial nitrogen fixation using electric arcs, before Haber Bosch became dominant. Today, the conditions that once favoured fossil-based production are shifting again. Electricity, not gas, is becoming the strategic resource.
If fertiliser remains tied to fossil fuels, food security will remain tied to energy volatility. Breaking the capital intensive and high-risk chain from fossil resources to food production is one of the most important challenges facing global agriculture.
The future of fertiliser may not only be larger plants, but also smaller, distributed production systems powered by renewable electricity and located closer to where food is grown. As the energy transition reshapes industrial production, resilience may matter more than scale.
